SPECIAL OSCAR EDITION: LAST-MINUTE NOTICE by Guy Malone, Researcher

Well here we Serfers; it's the day of the Oscars, and never have we been so poorly informed about the nominated films and performances. Still, we marshal on, ignoring our ignorance we will predict the winners, based on the films we saw and the research we did on all of the precursor awards: the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild, BAFTA, etc. 

Note: These are not our personal favorites; they are predictions of who we think will win. We submitted our predictions to the Gold Derby contest, as we do every year, in hopes of winning $1,000. The best we ever did was 21 out of 24, and we generally get somewhere between 17 and 20 correct, so take it for what it's worth.

With that in mind. here we go.  Below, we give you our opinions and prejudices, followed by our predictions, and then offer all of the nominees in alphabetical order:

BEST PICTURE:

First of all, this is a terrific roster of nominees, IMO, and equally IMO, Tár was the best film.  Banshees  was its near equal, Maverick was great fun, and Avatar in IMAX 3D is not to be missed, 

But the winner will be the most original film and the one that took the Academy by storm, and underneath all of the insanity, it is the warm story of healing: the healing of a marriage, of a family, and of a woman coming to terms with who she is:                                                                                                    Everything Everywhere All at Once

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

DIRECTOR:

Again, a nice roster, but where are the women?  I'm sorry, but Sarah Polley's statement direction of Women Talking deserves note here.  Martin McDonagh has the Coen brothers' gift of juxtaposing comedy, warmth, and shock/violence, and Todd Field brings the politics and human toll of power to classical music.  There could be a sentimental vote bringing a Stephen Spielberg upset                                                                 But the winners will be Kwan and Scheinert

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Todd Field, Tár

Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

LEAD ACTRESS:

Any time Cate Blanchett is nominated she is the best actress, and in our opinion, her interpretation revealing the corruption of power in Tár is perhaps her best ever. but we have no problem with the Academy awarding the amazing:
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

LEAD ACTOR:

Colin Farrell was the early leader here, and he is our favorite. The widespread favorite is Austin Butler, but we are prejudiced against celebrity imitations, no matter how good they may be, and perhaps that has influenced our gut feeling that, despite the reputedly awful movie that is The Whale, the winner will be the beloved:  Brendan Fraser 

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Reasoning this category is really difficult because any one of the nominees could win.  Angela Bassett has a tremendous following.  Jamie Lee Curtis is a sentimental favorite, but she is one of two nominated for the same film, which could split votes.  Both are excellent, either could easily win, but we're going to vote with our heart here. Our favorite is the tough but sentimental performance of:
Kerry Condon 

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Another tough one.  Brian Tyree Henry very well might have given the best performance, but, like seven people have seen Causeway because of Apple TV's proprietary arrogance. Brendan Gleeson was terrific as was Barry Keoghan, but, again they could split votes, so the winner will be:
Ke Huy Quan

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Rian Johnson's playful, witty, and twisty story is a personal favorite. Women Talking though, the adaptation of Miriam Toews’ 2018 novel about sexual assault, won the Writer's Guild award and will bring the Oscar to a person who also should have been nominated for Best Director:
Sarah Polley

All Quiet on the Western Front, Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Rian Johnson

Living, Kazuo Ishiguro

Top Gun: Maverick, Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

Women Talking, Sarah Polley

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

We really respect Todd Field's research into classical music and already mentioned Martin McDonagh's gifts--and he could win as a consolation prize for Banshees. The Academy loves Stephen Spielberg, so his autobiographical work could hold sway, but in the end, we believe that this is the year of the Daniels: 
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh

Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner

Tár, Todd Field

Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Östlund

CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Florian Hoffmeister portrayed the stark beauty that matched the existential chill of Tár. The American Society of Cinematographers gave its top award to Mandy Walker, but who will listen to them?  And one should never underestimate Roger Deakins, but the winner here for the WWI drama is:
James Friend

All Quiet on the Western Front, James Friend

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Darius Khondji

Elvis, Mandy Walker

Empire of Light, Roger Deakins

Tár, Florian Hoffmeister

ANIMATED FEATURE:

Is it any contest? 
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

I mean, really, who knows? So we'll say it's the story of the Russian opposition leader poisoned by Putin henchpeople,  Alexander Navalny.
Navalny

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

If it's the only film in this category also nominated for Best Picture overall, it's a no-brainer.  
All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Close

EO

The Quiet Girl

PLEASE NOTE: From here on, no commentary, we'll just predict the winner, putting it in Bold and above the other nominees.

COSTUME DESIGN:

Black Panther, Wakanda Forever, Ruth E. Carter

Babylon, Mary Zophres

Elvis, Catherine Martin

Everything Everywhere All at Once, Shirley Kurata

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Jenny Beavan

FILM EDITING:

Everything Everywhere All at Once, Paul Rogers

The Banshees of Inisherin, Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

Elvis, Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond

Tár, Monika Willi

Top Gun: Maverick, Eddie Hamilton

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

The Whale, Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

All Quiet on the Western Front, Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová

The Batman, Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Camille Friend and Joel Harlow

Elvis, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti

PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Elvis,  Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; set decoration: Bev Dunn

All Quiet on the Western Front, production design: Christian M. Goldbeck; set decoration: Ernestine Hipper

Avatar: The Way of Water, production design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; set decoration: Vanessa Cole

Babylon, production design: Florencia Martin; set decoration: Anthony Carlino

The Fabelmans,  Rick Carter; set decoration: Karen O’Hara

SCORE:

The Banshees of Inisherin, Carter Burwell

All Quiet on the Western Front, Volker Bertelmann

Babylon, Justin Hurwitz

Everything Everywhere All at Once, Son Lux

The Fabelmans, John Williams

SONG:

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick -- music and lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop

“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman -- music and lyric by Diane Warren

“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever -- music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Goransson; lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR -- music by M.M. Keeravaaani; lyric by Chandrabose

“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once -- music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski; lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

SOUND:

Top Gun: Maverick, Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

All Quiet on the Western Front, Viktor Prásil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte

Avatar: The Way of Water, Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges

The Batman, Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson

Elvis, David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller

VISUAL EFFECTS:

Avatar: The Way of Water, Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett

All Quiet on the Western Front, Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamil Jafar

The Batman, Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick

Top Gun: Maverick, Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher

ANIMATED SHORT:

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Stranger at the Gate

LIVE-ACTION SHORT:

Le Pupille

An Irish Goodbye

Ivalu

Night Ride

The Red Suitcase