ACADEMY AWARDS  - FilmZ and Guy S. Malone, Researcher

The Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 2, 2025, at the Dolby® Theatre in Hollywood and will be televised live on ABC. It will be hosted by Conan O'Brien, so we can't wait.

First, apologies for my negligence in keeping up with reviews over the past year.  I have been trying to make the manuscript for my second novel more accessible than the Rosetta Stone, no mean feat. 

Also a gripe to the Academy, even though none of them will heed this. The movie The Fall Guy highlights the crying need of an Oscar category for stunt work. Any readers of this column who saw that incredibly fun film are sure to agree with me.

Down to business: the 97th edition of the Oscars is almost here, and maybe it's FilmZ and Guy S. Malone, Researcher, but it seems difficult to see a clear path for any film to cut a swath to Oscar glory this year. Predictions look particularly difficult, not because there are so many good films; rather, the entries look either niche or flawed, or sure to offend some group in some way. Emilia Perez, for example, leads all films with 13 nominations, but it has an IMDb audience rating of 55% and a Metascore (critics) of 70/100. The Brutalist, a film about a European architect who escapes post-WWII Europe for a new life in the U.S., has a longer runtime than a real-time Amish barn raising. Bob Dylan, the subject of A Complete Unknown and a consultant on the film, evidently thought his life story needed punching up, so he insisted on including some fictionalized content. In The Substance, horror is a tough genre to sell to Oscar, even for a film that seems like Stanley Kubrick and David Lynch collaborated on a Jane Fonda workout video. And the frontrunner Anora is a tragedy about the exploitation of the working class billed as raunchy romcom. 

We could go on, but you get the point. The real point: though there may be many smart money predictions out there, ours are probably not among them. In fact, we are going against the grain in our first, and most critical prediction -- Best Picture.

On that optimistic note, let's get to it. The predictions below are based on precursor awards that films and performances have garnered, input from friends and family, and our own personal judgments and biases gleaned from our own viewings.

Below are our predictions, with rationale and commentary in a few places. 

BEST PICTURE

The odds-on favorite is Anora, but we liked several others more, and we believe there could be an upset on Oscar night. We're picking:

CONCLAVE  (Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell, Michael A. Jackman, Producers) Don't count it out, it did win the Screen Actors Guild Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, and SAG is the largest voting bloc in the Academy. It also won BAFTA and Critics Choice, Best Ensemble.

Having said that, if you are a betting person, check out the credentials for the favorite:

ANORA   (Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, Sean Baker, Producers) With the utmost objectivity, I have to predict the raunchy rom-tragicomedycom to win. It won Cannes Palme d'Or, Critics Choice, Directors Guild, Film Independent Spirit, Producer's Guild Darryl F. Zanuck Award, WGA, and a slew of film festivals.

Other Nominees:

THE BRUTALIST (Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim, Brady Corbet, Producers)

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN (Fred Berger, James Mangold, Alex Heineman, Producers)

DUNE: PART TWO (Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Denis Villeneuve, Producers)

EMILIA PÉREZ (Pascal Caucheteux, Jacques Audiard, Producers)

I'M STILL HERE (Maria Carlota Bruno, Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers)

NICKEL BOYS (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joslyn Barnes, Producers)

THE SUBSTANCE (Coralie Fargeat and Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Producers)

WICKED (Marc Platt, Producer)

DIRECTING

Sean Baker should win for Anora. His inspired handling of a cast of unknowns made us feel as if we were watching real people living a whirlwind slice of life, with all of the humor and pathos and ultimately heart-rending sorrow. 

In some other years, Brady Corbet's wrangling of the sprawling drama The Brutalist would be the frontrunner.

Other Nominees:

Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez 

Coralie Fargeat - The Substance  

James Mangold - A Complete Unknown 

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Demi Moore in The Substance  Moore is riveting. Many talk about brave performances, but here is more than a platitude. Not only does she immerse herself in her role, but she also faithfully depicts the reality of women of a certain age in modern culture, and her performance is an anguished cry of empowerment.

Mikey Madison is a one-woman tour de force in Anora and a favorite in many corners. Don't count the former unknown out. She was tremendous.

Other Nominees:

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Karla Sofía Gascón in Emilia Perez

Fernanda Torres in I'm Still Here

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Perez   Saldaña is receiving the most plaudits of her career. A win here gives the most nominated film a reward in a major category, not a mean feat, considering her competition.

Isabella Rossellini in Conclave has a powerful impact in the few scenes in which she appears.

Other Nominees:

Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown 

Ariana Grande in Wicked

Felicity Jones in The Brutalist

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist  In a close race, Brody, as the intense, suffering architect who immigrates from post-WWII Europe to the U.S., is at the dramatic center of the film. He won many of the precursors. 

Timothée Chalamet's performance in A Complete Unknown is by all accounts an inspired take on Bob Dylan. He won the important and influential SAG Award. He is the only actor other than James Dean in 1955 to be nominated twice while still in his 20s. Notably, he did all of the singing for the role.

Other Nominees:

Colman Domingo in Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain. This is one of the better bets, not that the other candidates are bad.

Other Nominees:

Yura Borisov in Anora

Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora by Sean Baker should win this category, even despite stiff competition. His penchant for depicting society's outcasts and telling stories that bare their souls brings more than just an understanding of the denizens of what many see as America's underbelly, it elicits our empathy.

Other Nominees:

The Brutalist by Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold

A Real Pain by Jesse Eisenberg

September 5 by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David

The Substance by Coralie Fargeat

WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave by Peter Straughan is our prohibitive favorite here. His adaptation to the screen brings all of the political infighting and tension of a selection process that means the World to its participants, and the intriguing path it draws us along to its astounding conclusion is masterful.

Other Nominees:

A Complete Unknown by James Mangold and Jay Cocks

Emilia Perez by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi

Nickel Boys by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes

Sing Sing by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield

FILM EDITING

Nick Emerson's work in Conclave took a compelling screenplay and drove it forward to its astounding conclusion without a wasted movement of phrase. The same cannot be said for several of its competitors (Ahem, Anora and The Brutalist)

Other Nominees:

Sean Baker, Anora

David Jancso - The Brutalist

Myron Kerstein, Wicked

Juliette Welfling - Emilia Perez

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Lol Crawley, The Brutalist seems the frontrunner, despite its use of AI. That's all we have to say here on the matter.

Other Nominees:  

Dune: Part Two- Greig Fraser

Emilia Perez - Paul Guilhaume

Maria - Ed Lachman

Nosferatu - Jarin Blaschke

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

I'm Still Here - Brazil in a mild upset over Emilia Perez, The story of a family enduring the fascist regime in 1970 Brazil just seems more serious and compelling, which is what the Academy traditionally has favored.

Other Nominees:

The Girl with the Needle - Denmark

Emilia Perez - France

The Seed of the Sacred Fig - Germany

Flow - Latvia

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Wild Robot - Chris Sanders, Jeff Hermann, though we are more intrigued by:

Flow - Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, Gregory Zalcman, but maybe that's because we like cats.

Other Nominees:

Inside Out 2 - Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen

Memoir of a Snail - Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl - Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham, Richard Beek

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

No Other Land - Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal, Yuval Abraham

Other Nominees:

Black Box Diaries- Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari, Hanna Aqvilin

Porcelain War - Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska, Paula DuPre' Pesmen

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat - Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius, Rémi Grellety

Sugarcane - Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Wicked, Production Design by Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales is the clear frontrunner, the world building in the film is fantastic, a stunning visual experience that seems as if Oz really exists. 

Other Nominees:

The Brutalist -  Production Design by Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia

Conclave - Production Design by Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter

Dune: Part Two - Production Design by Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

Nosferatu - Production Design by Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová

COSTUME DESIGN

Wicked's Paul Tazewell brings imagination and fantasy to life.

Other Nominees:

A Complete Unknown - Arianne Phillips

Conclave - Lisy Christl

Gladiator II - Janty Yates and Dave Crossman

Nosferatu - Linda Muir

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

The Substance - Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli. I guess you just have to see it.  Reminiscent of The Fly. 

Other Nominees:

A Different Man - Mike Marino, David Presto, Crystal Jurado

Emilia Perez - Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier, Jean-Christophe Spadaccini

Nosferatu - David White, Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton

Wicked - Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, Sarah Nuth

MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist - Daniel Blumberg's soaring score is the favorite, though we are partial to 

Conclave - Volker Bertelmann

Other Nominees:

Emilia Perez - Clément Ducol and Camille

Wicked - John Powell and Stephen Schwartz

The Wild Robot - Kris Bowers

MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG

"El Mal" - Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard from Emilia Perez is the favorite here. I'll take the experts' word for it.

Other Nominees:

"The Journey" from The Six Triple Eight, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

"Like A Bird" from Sing Sing, Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada

"Mi Camino" from Emilia Perez, Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol

"Never Too Late" from Elton John: Never Too Late, Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin

SOUND

Dune: Part Two - Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill. Our younger son bought us state of the art speakers for our big screen last year. Take our word for it on this one.

Other Nominees:

A Complete Unknown - Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco

Emilia Perez - Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta

Wicked - Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis

The Wild Robot - Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts

VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune: Part Two - Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer. Our younger son bought us a projection screen for our system. Take our word for it.

Other Nominees:

Alien Romulus - Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan

Better Man - Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke

Wicked -Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Yuck!- Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet

Other Nominees:

Beautiful Men- Nicolas Keppens, Brecht Van Elslande

In the Shadow of the Cypress - Shirin Sohani,  Hossein Molayemi

Magic Candies - Daisuke Nishio, Takashi Washio

Wander to Wonder - Nina Gantz, Stienette Bosklopper

DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

The Only Girl in the Orchestra - Molly O'Brien, Lisa Remington

Other Nominees:

Death By Numbers- Kim A. Snyder, Janique L. Robillard

I Am Ready, Warden - Smriti Mundhra, Maya Gnyp

Incident - Bill Morrison, Jamie Kalven

Instruments of a Beating Heart - Ema Ryan Yamazaki, Eric Nyari

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent - Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek

Other Nominees:

A Lien - Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz

Anuja - Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai

I'm Not A Robot - Victoria Warmerdam and Trent

The Last Ranger - Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw