Oscar Picks: 2026
By FilmZ and Guy S. Malone, Film Researcher, with contributions from Hawley Smoot, Financial Advisor, Dragan Armansky, Milton Security
Welcome to our highly prejudiced and sometimes uninformed or misinformed picks for the 98th Academy Awards. Please note that these are PICKS, not predictions. In other words, don't look to us for answers to your betting pools or contest entries, unless, of course, you agree with us, in which case your opinions are in serious doubt. We have had our good years, the best being 21 out of the 24 categories, but on average, we've gotten around 17 correct.
The ceremony takes place on Sunday, March 15, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET (4:00 PM PT) from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. Conan O’Brien is the host. Yoju can find the show on ABC, with Hulu streaming for subscribers.
So, here we go. After each category title and narrative, our pick will appear in Bold, followed by a list of the other contenders:
Best Picture
We won't beat around the bush; Sinners is our favorite film of the year, and it doesn't even matter if it doesn't win Best Picture. The genre-buster is a true original, and in our opinion, a future classic. The closest competitors are One Battle After Another, arguably Paul Thomas Anderson's best film—which is saying a lot—and Hamnet, thanks to Shakespeare, Chloé Zhao, and Jessie Buckley. Frankenstein will earn its place in the pantheon of Mary Shelley's descendants, though we have to wonder why Guillermo del Toro thought it necessary to try to improve on a classic. Marty Supreme shook the film world, but it's already showing signs of fading. Sentimental Value, with its impressive performances, and The Secret Agent, with the magnetic Wagner Moura, are treasured international films, but unlikely to repeat Parasite's groundbreaking rise to the Oscar throne. The category also includes Bugonia, by auteur Yorgos Lanthimos, with his muse Emma Stone and the overlooked Jesse Plemons; the stunning, meditative Train Dreams; and the intense Formula One racing sequences in F1: The Movie. And the winner is:
Sinners
Other Contenders:
Bugonia
F1: The Movie
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Train Dreams
Director Anderson, Coogler, Trier, and Zhao are all top contenders (Safdie's reputation has taken a hit recently, so we'll count him out). Let's say Ryan Coogler deservedly gets the call for wrangling all of that talent and what could have been a cumbersome plot and making a masterpiece.
Ryan Coogler — Sinners
Others:
Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another
Josh Safdie — Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier — Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao — Hamnet
Actress Rose Byrne and Renate Reinsve have garnered strong support, and it would not be shocking or disappointing if either were awarded the Oscar. The feeling here, though, is that Jessie Buckley, for her role as the mystically gifted and ultimately tragic Agnes Shakespeare, is the one who strikes deepest in the hearts of Oscar voters. The winner:
Jessie Buckley — Hamnet
Others:
Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson — Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value
Emma Stone -- Bugonia
Actor A two-horse race. Timothée Chalamet came out of the gate fast, and he has pushed hard, pitching a clothing line, hitting all of the talk shows, and enlisting the support of friends, but his raps on opera and ballet and (maybe) wanting it too much have seen his star descend a bit. Meanwhile, the much-deserving and overdue Michael B. Jordan, in his dual role of brothers Smoke and Stack in Sinners, has shot upward.
Michael B. Jordan — Sinners
Others:
Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke — Blue Moon
Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent
Supporting Actress Perhaps the most difficult acting category to call. Let's go out on a limb and guess Amy Madigan's most bizarre and brave performance (if for no other reason than her hairstyle) as Aunt Gladys in Weapons is the choice. The winner:
Amy Madigan in Weapons
Others:
Elle Fanning — Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Sentimental Value
Wunmi Mosaku — Sinners
Teyana Taylor — One Battle After Another
Supporting Actor Another tough one to call. The most striking was Sean Penn's Col. Lockjaw; the most charismatic interpretation was Jacob Elordi's Creature in Frankenstein; the most overdue, Delroy Lindo; and, of course, the weirdly ironic Del Toro is always worthy. Still, it has to be muted, nuanced Stellan Skarsgård, doesn't it?
Stellan Skarsgård — Sentimental Value
Others:
Benicio Del Toro — One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi — Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo — Sinners
Sean Penn — One Battle After Another
Original Screenplay If Ryan Coogler's action/crime/musical/horror/drama Sinners doesn't win, we will be shocked. Its brilliant, creative energy was truly inspirational.
Sinners — Ryan Coogler
Others:
Blue Moon — Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident — Jafar Panahi; with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value — Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier
Adapted Screenplay Paul Thomas Anderson's treatment of One Battle After Another was bound to be divisive, though the guess here is that more people will agree with its revolutionary sentiments. Hamnet and Train Dreams hew to the humanity in all of us, and will be sentimental favorites. The feeling here is that, as beautiful as this version of Frankenstein is, it strays too far from the classic, and Bugonia is probably too far out there for most voters.
One Battle After Another — Paul Thomas Anderson
Others
Bugonia — Will Tracy
Frankenstein — Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet — Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
Train Dreams — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Animated Feature Animated features develop passionate followings, and each of these films has them, though Zootopia 2 and KPop Demon Hunters are probably the favorites. We'll just go with the one our family loved.
KPop Demon Hunters
Others:
Arco
Elio
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
International Feature Film A close battle between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value. I'll go with the one that set the record for the most nominations ever for any Norwegian film (nine).
Sentimental Value — Norway
Others:
The Secret Agent — Brazil
It Was Just an Accident — France
Sirāt — Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab — Tunisia
Documentary Feature Florida's "stand your ground" laws are examined in this gripping study
The Perfect Neighbor
Others:
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Casting The first-ever Oscar for this brand new category goes to the winner of the "Actor Award" for the same category.
Sinners — Francine Maisler
Others:
Hamnet — Nina Gold
Marty Supreme — Jennifer Venditti
One Battle After Another — Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent — Gabriel Domingues
Cinematography Train Dreams is the most cinematically artistic film this side of Terrence Malick. We hate to be those guys, but if it doesn't win, it's because not enough voters bothered to watch it.
Train Dreams — Adolpho Veloso
Others:
Frankenstein — Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme — Darius Khondji
One Battle After Another — Michael Bauman
Sinners — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Film Editing Head-to-head battle between the two heavyweight contenders, but Paul Thomas Anderson's film pace of action and intensity noses out Ryan Coogler's gem.
One Battle After Another — Andy Jurgensen
Others:
F1: The Movie — Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value — Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners — Michael P. Shawver
Production Design Recreating 1930s Mississippi, from sundries shop to juke joint, we can almost smell the dust and booze. The authentic atmosphere and aesthetics of this film establish both its authenticity and its otherworldliness.
Sinners — Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Others:
Frankenstein — Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Hamnet — Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
Marty Supreme — Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
One Battle After Another — Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Costume Design Period pieces have an edge here, and we'll go with the winner of the Costume Designers Guild winner in that category.
Frankenstein — Kate Hawley
Others:
Avatar: Fire and Ash — Deborah L. Scott
Hamnet — Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme — Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners — Ruth E. Carter
Makeup and Hairstyling Frankenstein aficionados here. We have seen countless versions of Shelley's classic tale, and in Guillermo del Toro's vision, the Creature created is the perfect blend of frightening, sympathetic, and weirdly attractive.
Frankenstein — Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey
Others:
Kokuho — Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu
Sinners — Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Shunika Terry
The Smashing Machine — Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, Bjoern Rehbein
The Ugly Stepsister — Thomas Foldberg, Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Original Score Pulse-pounding Delta blues, haunting Irish folk tunes, and background music that sets the time, place, and mood, the Sinners score should win hands down.
Sinners — Ludwig Goransson
Others:
Bugonia — Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein — Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet — Max Richter
One Battle After Another — Jonny Greenwood
Original Song As great as the Sinners overall score is, Golden's is the soaring tune that reveals the aspiration of the characters and sets the overall energy for KPop Demon Hunters.
“Golden” —KPop Demon Hunters (Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park)
Others:
“Dear Me” — Diane Warren: Relentless (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
“I Lied To You” — Sinners (Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson)
“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” — Viva Verdi! (Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike)
“Train Dreams” — Train Dreams (Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave)
Sound Maybe it's the middle school greaser in us, fixated on cars and speed. A few years ago, we chose Ford v Ferrari, now we like F1: The Movie. Wanna drag?
F1: The Movie— Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, Juan Peralta
Others:
Frankenstein — Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
One Battle After Another — José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflor
Sinners — Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, Steve Boeddeker
Sirāt — Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas
Visual Effects Every few years, James Cameron trots out an Avatar movie, just so he can pick up another Visual Effects nomination and Oscar. He's back, despite many experts thinking the haunting effects of the vampire scenes in Sinners will win.
Avatar: Fire and Ash — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett
Others:
F1: The Movie — Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, Keith Dawson
Jurassic World Rebirth — David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould
The Lost Bus — Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, Brandon K. McLaughlin
Sinners — Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, Donnie Dean
For the last three categories, we will make no commentary other than the full disclosure here that we haven't seen enough of them and have to plead nearly total ignorance, other than what we have read. So, in effect, we are going with hearsay and our own personal favor or disfavor over a title or some petty notion, as you will see:
Animated Short Film
Butterfly — Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
Others:
Forevergreen — Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
The Girl Who Cried Pearls — Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
Retirement Plan — John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
The Three Sisters — Konstantin Bronzit
Live Action Short Film
Two People Exchanging Saliva — Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Others:
Butcher’s Stain — Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
A Friend of Dorothy — Lee Knight and James Dean
Jane Austen’s Period Drama — Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
The Singers — Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
Documentary Short Film
The Devil Is Busy — Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
Others:
All the Empty Rooms — Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud — Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” — Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
Perfectly a Strangeness — Alison McAlpine






