John DeFrank's: March 2026

Oscar Picks: 2026

By FilmZ and Guy S. Malone, Film Researcher, with contributions from Hawley Smoot, Financial Advisor, Dragan Armansky, Milton Security

Welcome to our highly prejudiced and sometimes uninformed or misinformed picks for the 98th Academy Awards. Please note that these are PICKS, not predictions. In other words, don't look to us for answers to your betting pools or contest entries, unless, of course, you agree with us, in which case your opinions are in serious doubt. We have had our good years, the best being 21 out of the 24 categories, but on average, we've gotten around 17 correct.

The ceremony takes place on Sunday, March 15, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET (4:00 PM PT) from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. Conan O’Brien is the host. Yoju can find the show on ABC, with Hulu streaming for subscribers.

So, here we go. After each category title and narrative, our pick will appear in Bold, followed by a list of the other contenders:

Best Picture

We won't beat around the bush; Sinners is our favorite film of the year, and it doesn't even matter if it doesn't win Best Picture. The genre-buster is a true original, and in our opinion, a future classic. The closest competitors are One Battle After Another, arguably Paul Thomas Anderson's best film—which is saying a lot—and Hamnet, thanks to Shakespeare, Chloé Zhao, and Jessie Buckley. Frankenstein will earn its place in the pantheon of Mary Shelley's descendants, though we have to wonder why Guillermo del Toro thought it necessary to try to improve on a classic. Marty Supreme shook the film world, but it's already showing signs of fading. Sentimental Value, with its impressive performances, and The Secret Agent, with the magnetic Wagner Moura, are treasured international films, but unlikely to repeat Parasite's groundbreaking rise to the Oscar throne. The category also includes Bugonia, by auteur Yorgos Lanthimos, with his muse Emma Stone and the overlooked Jesse Plemons; the stunning, meditative Train Dreams; and the intense Formula One racing sequences in F1: The Movie. And the winner is:

Sinners

Other Contenders:

Bugonia

F1: The Movie

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Train Dreams

Director Anderson, Coogler, Trier, and Zhao are all top contenders (Safdie's reputation has taken a hit recently, so we'll count him out). Let's say Ryan Coogler deservedly gets the call for wrangling all of that talent and what could have been a cumbersome plot and making a masterpiece.

Ryan Coogler — Sinners

Others:

Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another

Josh Safdie — Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier — Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao — Hamnet

Actress Rose Byrne and Renate Reinsve have garnered strong support, and it would not be shocking or disappointing if either were awarded the Oscar. The feeling here, though, is that Jessie Buckley, for her role as the mystically gifted and ultimately tragic Agnes Shakespeare, is the one who strikes deepest in the hearts of Oscar voters. The winner:

Jessie Buckley — Hamnet

Others:

Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson — Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value

Emma Stone -- Bugonia

Actor A two-horse race. Timothée Chalamet came out of the gate fast, and he has pushed hard, pitching a clothing line, hitting all of the talk shows, and enlisting the support of friends, but his raps on opera and ballet and (maybe) wanting it too much have seen his star descend a bit. Meanwhile, the much-deserving and overdue Michael B. Jordan, in his dual role of brothers Smoke and Stack in Sinners, has shot upward.

Michael B. Jordan — Sinners

Others:

Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke — Blue Moon

Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent

Supporting Actress Perhaps the most difficult acting category to call. Let's go out on a limb and guess Amy Madigan's most bizarre and brave performance (if for no other reason than her hairstyle) as Aunt Gladys in Weapons is the choice. The winner:

Amy Madigan in Weapons

Others:

Elle Fanning — Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Sentimental Value

Wunmi Mosaku — Sinners

Teyana Taylor — One Battle After Another

Supporting Actor Another tough one to call. The most striking was Sean Penn's Col. Lockjaw; the most charismatic interpretation was Jacob Elordi's Creature in Frankenstein; the most overdue, Delroy Lindo; and, of course, the weirdly ironic Del Toro is always worthy. Still, it has to be muted, nuanced Stellan Skarsgård, doesn't it?

Stellan Skarsgård — Sentimental Value

Others:

Benicio Del Toro — One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi — Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo — Sinners

Sean Penn — One Battle After Another

Original Screenplay If Ryan Coogler's action/crime/musical/horror/drama Sinners doesn't win, we will be shocked. Its brilliant, creative energy was truly inspirational.

Sinners — Ryan Coogler

Others:

Blue Moon — Robert Kaplow

It Was Just an Accident — Jafar Panahi; with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian

Marty Supreme — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie

Sentimental Value — Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier

Adapted Screenplay Paul Thomas Anderson's treatment of One Battle After Another was bound to be divisive, though the guess here is that more people will agree with its revolutionary sentiments. Hamnet and Train Dreams hew to the humanity in all of us, and will be sentimental favorites. The feeling here is that, as beautiful as this version of Frankenstein is, it strays too far from the classic, and Bugonia is probably too far out there for most voters.

One Battle After Another — Paul Thomas Anderson

Others

Bugonia — Will Tracy

Frankenstein — Guillermo del Toro

Hamnet — Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell

Train Dreams — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

Animated Feature Animated features develop passionate followings, and each of these films has them, though Zootopia 2 and KPop Demon Hunters are probably the favorites. We'll just go with the one our family loved.

KPop Demon Hunters

Others:

Arco

Elio

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2

International Feature Film A close battle between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value. I'll go with the one that set the record for the most nominations ever for any Norwegian film (nine).

Sentimental Value — Norway

Others:

The Secret Agent — Brazil

It Was Just an Accident — France

Sirāt — Spain

The Voice of Hind Rajab — Tunisia

Documentary Feature Florida's "stand your ground" laws are examined in this gripping study

The Perfect Neighbor

Others:

The Alabama Solution

Come See Me in the Good Light

Cutting Through Rocks

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Casting The first-ever Oscar for this brand new category goes to the winner of the "Actor Award" for the same category.

Sinners — Francine Maisler

Others:

Hamnet — Nina Gold

Marty Supreme — Jennifer Venditti

One Battle After Another — Cassandra Kulukundis

The Secret Agent — Gabriel Domingues

Cinematography Train Dreams is the most cinematically artistic film this side of Terrence Malick. We hate to be those guys, but if it doesn't win, it's because not enough voters bothered to watch it.

Train Dreams — Adolpho Veloso

Others:

Frankenstein — Dan Laustsen

Marty Supreme — Darius Khondji

One Battle After Another — Michael Bauman

Sinners — Autumn Durald Arkapaw

Film Editing Head-to-head battle between the two heavyweight contenders, but Paul Thomas Anderson's film pace of action and intensity noses out Ryan Coogler's gem.

One Battle After Another — Andy Jurgensen

Others:

F1: The Movie — Stephen Mirrione

Marty Supreme — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie

Sentimental Value — Olivier Bugge Coutté

Sinners — Michael P. Shawver

Production Design Recreating 1930s Mississippi, from sundries shop to juke joint, we can almost smell the dust and booze. The authentic atmosphere and aesthetics of this film establish both its authenticity and its otherworldliness.

Sinners — Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne

Others:

Frankenstein — Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

Hamnet — Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton

Marty Supreme — Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis

One Battle After Another — Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino

Costume Design Period pieces have an edge here, and we'll go with the winner of the Costume Designers Guild winner in that category.

Frankenstein — Kate Hawley

Others:

Avatar: Fire and Ash — Deborah L. Scott

Hamnet — Malgosia Turzanska

Marty Supreme — Miyako Bellizzi

Sinners — Ruth E. Carter

Makeup and Hairstyling Frankenstein aficionados here. We have seen countless versions of Shelley's classic tale, and in Guillermo del Toro's vision, the Creature created is the perfect blend of frightening, sympathetic, and weirdly attractive.

Frankenstein — Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey

Others:

Kokuho — Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu

Sinners — Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Shunika Terry

The Smashing Machine — Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, Bjoern Rehbein

The Ugly Stepsister — Thomas Foldberg, Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

Original Score Pulse-pounding Delta blues, haunting Irish folk tunes, and background music that sets the time, place, and mood, the Sinners score should win hands down.

Sinners — Ludwig Goransson

Others:

Bugonia — Jerskin Fendrix

Frankenstein — Alexandre Desplat

Hamnet — Max Richter

One Battle After Another — Jonny Greenwood

Original Song As great as the Sinners overall score is, Golden's is the soaring tune that reveals the aspiration of the characters and sets the overall energy for KPop Demon Hunters.

“Golden” —KPop Demon Hunters (Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park)

Others:

“Dear Me” — Diane Warren: Relentless (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)

“I Lied To You” — Sinners (Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson)

“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” — Viva Verdi! (Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike)

“Train Dreams” — Train Dreams (Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave)

Sound Maybe it's the middle school greaser in us, fixated on cars and speed. A few years ago, we chose Ford v Ferrari, now we like F1: The Movie. Wanna drag?

F1: The Movie— Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, Juan Peralta

Others:

Frankenstein — Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern

One Battle After Another — José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflor

Sinners — Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, Steve Boeddeker

Sirāt — Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas

Visual Effects Every few years, James Cameron trots out an Avatar movie, just so he can pick up another Visual Effects nomination and Oscar. He's back, despite many experts thinking the haunting effects of the vampire scenes in Sinners will win.

Avatar: Fire and Ash — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

Others:

F1: The Movie — Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, Keith Dawson

Jurassic World Rebirth — David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould

The Lost Bus — Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, Brandon K. McLaughlin

Sinners — Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, Donnie Dean

For the last three categories, we will make no commentary other than the full disclosure here that we haven't seen enough of them and have to plead nearly total ignorance, other than what we have read. So, in effect, we are going with hearsay and our own personal favor or disfavor over a title or some petty notion, as you will see:

Animated Short Film

Butterfly — Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens

Others:

Forevergreen — Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears

The Girl Who Cried Pearls — Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski

Retirement Plan — John Kelly and Andrew Freedman

The Three Sisters — Konstantin Bronzit

Live Action Short Film

Two People Exchanging Saliva — Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata

Others:

Butcher’s Stain — Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi

A Friend of Dorothy — Lee Knight and James Dean