The 91st Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. The Oscars will air live on ABC at 8 p.m. ET.
We have been making these predictions for seven years. (Before this blog existed, we published in a local newspaper that went out of business--not our fault.) Over that time, we have averaged 20 out of 24 correct--drat those short subjects--but this year could be our toughest. The Academy has added many young, minority, and international members, resulting in some truly surprising nominations. Those same folks who nominate also vote for the Oscar winners, so expect the unexpected.
Even the industry guilds can't agree on which is the Best Picture:
PGA (Producers Guild of America) -- Green Book,
DGA (Directors Guild of America) -- Roma,
SAG (Screen Actors Guild) -- Black Panther,
ASC (American Society of Cinematographers) -- Cold War,
WGA (Writer's Guild of America) -- Can You Ever Forgive Me and Eighth Grade,
ACE (American Cinema Editors) -- Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite.
Furthermore, SAG ignored Roma altogether, the film many see as the frontrunner for Best Picture. So, in case you are counting, the six major guilds selected eight different films, three of which were not even nominated for Best Picture.
So, without further ado, let's get to it. Below, we list all of the candidates in each category with our choice of who will win, who we believe should win, and then the also-rans in order of their chances to win. There is also the rationale behind those choices, accompanied in some cases by Guy Malone, Researcher's customary whining. Enjoy:
BEST PICTURE
Funny thing, our least liked film in this category is Roma, yet it is the critical favorite, backed up by many precursor awards in its pocket, and it tied in Academy Awards nominations with The Favourite, a movie we loved. We also very much liked BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Vice, and Black Panther, and, heck, even Bohemian Rhapsody was fun.
Will Win:
Roma
Should Win:
The Favourite
Green Book
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
A Star is Born
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
__________________________________________________________________________
DIRECTOR
Again, Alfonso Cuaron, by acclamation, is most likely to win, but Spike Lee has made the best film of his esteemed career and he ought to win.
Will Win:
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Should Win:
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Adam McKay - Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War
_____________________________________________________________________________
ACTRESS
I was all in for Olivia Coleman until I saw The Wife. I still wouldn't squawk if Coleman won, but Glenn Close gave her best performance ever. I love Lady Gaga, but hers was a cut below these two; in fact, Melissa McCarthy gave her best performance to date, but GaGa has been getting a lot of love, even leading the pack for awhile.
Will Win and Should Win:
Glenn Close - The Wife
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
_____________________________________________________________________________
ACTOR
Had this vote taken place in early January, the Oscar would belong to Christian Bale. Since then, both Bohemian Rhapsody and Rami Malek have come on like gangbusters. All nominees put in excellent performances: Cooper's singing and directing, Mortensen's convincing mobster-driver with a heart, Dafoe's haunted artist struggling with insanity.
Will Win:
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win:
Christian Bale - Vice
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
_________________________________________________________________________________
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King is another critical favorite who stood out in Beale Street with two riveting scenes, but Amy Adams' Lynn Cheney, as compelling at a college sweetheart as she was as a Lady Macbethian matron, was tops, in our opinion. Stone and Weisz (BAFTA winner) split votes here.
Will Win:
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win:
Amy Adams - ViceWill Win:
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win:
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Rachel Weisz - Favourite
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Marina de Tavira - Roma
_____________________________________________________________________________
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Every performance in this category is worthy of the Oscar. Ali is truly a co-lead in Green Book, and for that reason, he will win. There will be sympathy for both Sam Elliott and Richard E. Grant; Adam Driver is drolly magnetic, and Rockwell quite simply was "W".
Will Win and Should Win:
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott - A Star is Born
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Rockwell - Vice
_____________________________________________________________________________ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - (five nominees)
Spike Lee adapted Ron Stallworth's memoir into a film that is, at times, preachy but is also hugely entertaining and memorable. Beale Street and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are its closest threats. The Coen's episodic Buster Scruggs vacillates between brilliant and weird. The serial remake of A Star is Born is an adapted, adapted, adapted screenplay.
Should Win and Will Win:
BlacKkKlansman
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
A Star is Born
___________________________________________________________________________
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite screenwriters Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara provided a twisted historical piece that both complemented Director Yorgos Lanthimos surreal vision and leavened the excesses of his previous works, creating the most original film of those nominated.
Will Win and Should Win:
The Favourite
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Green Book
Roma
Vice
First Reformed
_______________________________________________________________________________
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The runaway frontrunner here is Alfonso Cuaron for his black and white labor of love. We prefer Robbie Ryan's fish-eyed enhancement of the surreal period piece, The Favourite. And the Cinematographer's Association awarded Lukasz Zal's work in Cold War.
Will Win:
Roma
Should Win:
Cold War (or)
The Favourite
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
A Star is Born
Never Look Away
_____________________________________________________________________________
EDITING
In a stacked category, Adam McKay's cuts in Vice from past to present, from plot to exposition to diversion are seamless. We give it an edge, but again, we won't complain if another film wins. Bohemian Rhapsody has been coming on strong and could easily win.
Will Win and Should Win:
Vice
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Bohemian Rhapsody
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
___________________________________________________________________________
PRODUCTION DESIGN
The dusky corridors, the expansive grandeur of the ballroom and chambers, the 18th-century furnishings in regal shades; there's nothing like a period piece to win this one.
Will Win and Should Win:
The Favourite
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
First Man
____________________________________________________________________________
ORIGINAL SCORE
Classic jazz and bluesy soul perfectly set the time, place, and atmosphere, greatly enhancing the experience of Beale Street.
Should win and Will Win:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
BlacKkKlansman
Isle of Dogs
______________________________________________________________________________
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Oscars might honor the esteemed Supreme Court Justice, but Free Solo's stunning high-wire act is where art and science converge.
Will Win and Should Win:
Free Solo
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
RBG
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
_____________________________________________________________________________
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The category where Roma belongs
Will Win and Should Win:
Roma
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Cold War
Capernaum
Shoplifters
Never Look Away
____________________________________________________________________________
ORIGINAL SONG
Does anyone really think Lady GaGa's "Shallow" might not win?
Will Win and Should Win:
"Shallow" - A Star Is Born
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" - Mary Poppins Returns
"All The Stars" - Black Panther
"I'll Fight" - RBG
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
____________________________________________________________________________
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Another Competitive year, but Spidey has a fresh take on what could have been a hackneyed story. Vivid, with wild panels, like a comic book, but a story with real heart. In another year, any of the others could win.
Will Win and Should Win:
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Others(descending order in odds of winning):
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
_____________________________________________________________________________
COSTUME DESIGN
For the ladies' attire in The Favourite, Sandy Powell chose a palette consisting of only Oxford blue and white, a bold but striking decision that probably will win the Oscar. Mary: Queen of Scots and Mary Poppins were beautiful but not daring; in fact, the main rival here is Black Panther.
Should Win and Will Win:
The Favourite
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
______________________________________________________________________________
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Christian Bale became Dick Cheney; Sam Rockwell became George W. Bush; Amy Adams became Lynne Cheney; ... Though make no mistake, uglying up Margot Robbie took some doing.
Will Win and Should Win:
Vice
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Mary Queen of Scots
Border
_____________________________________________________________________________
VISUAL EFFECTS
Infinity War's astounding effects will make it the first Marvel movie to win this category, and it is well deserved, though we must admit, First Man made us think we were in that rocket, and Solo is an underrated entry into the Star Wars universe.
Will Win and Should Win:
Avengers: Infinity War
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
First Man
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Ready Player One
Christopher Robin
_____________________________________________________________________________
SOUND EDITING
Conventional wisdom here has First Man favored, or else Black Panther, but we feel A Quiet Place upset.
Will Win and Should Win:
A Quiet Place
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
First Man
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Roma
_________________________________________________________________________________
SOUND MIXING
Another minor upset: the last-minute rush of Bohemian Rhapsody overtakes A Star is Born and First Man for the gold.
Will Win and Should Win:
Bohemian Rhapsody
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
A Star Is Born
First Man
Black Panther
Roma
____________________________________________________________________________
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
Who knows?
Will Win:
Black Sheep
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Period. End of Sentence
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
____________________________________________________________________________
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Ideas, anyone?
Will Win:
Bao
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
One Small Step
Animal Behaviour
Weekends
Late Afternoon
____________________________________________________________________________
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Anyone?
Will Win:
Marguerite
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Skin
Mother
Detainment
Fauve
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Oscars might honor the esteemed Supreme Court Justice, but Free Solo's stunning high-wire act is where art and science converge.
Will Win and Should Win:
Free Solo
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
RBG
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
_____________________________________________________________________________
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The category where Roma belongs
Will Win and Should Win:
Roma
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Cold War
Capernaum
Shoplifters
Never Look Away
____________________________________________________________________________
ORIGINAL SONG
Does anyone really think Lady GaGa's "Shallow" might not win?
Will Win and Should Win:
"Shallow" - A Star Is Born
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" - Mary Poppins Returns
"All The Stars" - Black Panther
"I'll Fight" - RBG
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
____________________________________________________________________________
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Another Competitive year, but Spidey has a fresh take on what could have been a hackneyed story. Vivid, with wild panels, like a comic book, but a story with real heart. In another year, any of the others could win.
Will Win and Should Win:
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Others(descending order in odds of winning):
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
_____________________________________________________________________________
COSTUME DESIGN
For the ladies' attire in The Favourite, Sandy Powell chose a palette consisting of only Oxford blue and white, a bold but striking decision that probably will win the Oscar. Mary: Queen of Scots and Mary Poppins were beautiful but not daring; in fact, the main rival here is Black Panther.
Should Win and Will Win:
The Favourite
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
______________________________________________________________________________
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Christian Bale became Dick Cheney; Sam Rockwell became George W. Bush; Amy Adams became Lynne Cheney; ... Though make no mistake, uglying up Margot Robbie took some doing.
Will Win and Should Win:
Vice
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Mary Queen of Scots
Border
_____________________________________________________________________________
VISUAL EFFECTS
Infinity War's astounding effects will make it the first Marvel movie to win this category, and it is well deserved, though we must admit, First Man made us think we were in that rocket, and Solo is an underrated entry into the Star Wars universe.
Will Win and Should Win:
Avengers: Infinity War
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
First Man
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Ready Player One
Christopher Robin
_____________________________________________________________________________
SOUND EDITING
Conventional wisdom here has First Man favored, or else Black Panther, but we feel A Quiet Place upset.
Will Win and Should Win:
A Quiet Place
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
First Man
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Roma
_________________________________________________________________________________
SOUND MIXING
Another minor upset: the last-minute rush of Bohemian Rhapsody overtakes A Star is Born and First Man for the gold.
Will Win and Should Win:
Bohemian Rhapsody
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
A Star Is Born
First Man
Black Panther
Roma
____________________________________________________________________________
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
Who knows?
Will Win:
Black Sheep
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Period. End of Sentence
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
____________________________________________________________________________
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Ideas, anyone?
Will Win:
Bao
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
One Small Step
Animal Behaviour
Weekends
Late Afternoon
____________________________________________________________________________
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Anyone?
Will Win:
Marguerite
Others (descending order in odds of winning):
Skin
Mother
Detainment
Fauve